The Impact of Modernization and Labor Market Conditions on the School-to-Work Transition in Switzerland: A Dynamic Analysis of the Period from 1946 to 2002

Abstract

Past research on school-to-work transitions have largely neglected the time dependency of this transition process. In this study, we focus on the impact of the level of modernity and the labor market conditions at the time of labor market entry across school-leaver cohorts for the historical period from 1946 to 2002. In order to maintain a distinction between cohort and period effects, data from the life calendar collected in 2002, which is part of the Swiss Household Panel, along with administrative data were used. In addition, the study analyzes the effects of social background and attained educational qualification on the propensity to enter the labor market and the probability of cohorts being in the highest or lowest quartile of the status distribution in their first job. The empirical results support the suggested time dependence in entering the labor market: Younger cohorts achieve their credentials in periods characterized by a higher level of modernity; therefore, they are more likely to enter the labor market (as opposed to being unemployed or not being part of the labor market). However, the data also indicate significant differences across cohorts in their entry into the highest and lowest quartile of the status distribution.