The Impact of MJO, Kelvin, and Equatorial Rossby Waves on the Diurnal Cycle over the Maritime Continent

Abstract

The impacts of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), Kelvin waves, and Equatorial Rossby (ER) waves on the diurnal cycle of rainfall and types of deep convection over the Maritime Continent are investigated using rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis and Infrared Weather States (IR–WS) data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. In an absolute sense, the MJO produced its strongest modulations of rainfall and organized deep convection over the islands, when and where convection is already strongest. The MJO actually has a greater percentage modulation over the coasts and seas, but it does not affect weaker diurnal cycle there. Isolated deep convection was also more prevalent over land during the suppressed phase, while organized deep convection dominated the enhanced phase, consistent with past work. This study uniquely examined the effects of Kelvin and ER waves on rainfall, convection, and their diurnal cycles over the Maritime Continent. The modulation of convection by Kelvin waves closely mirrored that by the MJO, although the Kelvin wave convection continued farther into the decreasing phase. The signals for ER waves were also similar but less distinct. An improved understanding of how these waves interact with convection could lead to improved subseasonal forecast skill.