Abstract
Background: Climate change poses a real challenge and has contributed to causing the emergence and re-emergence of many communicable diseases of public health importance. Here, we reviewed scientific studies on the relationship between meteorological factors and the occurrence of dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis, and synthesized the key findings on communicable disease projection in the event of global warming. Method: This systematic review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow checklist. Four databases (Web of Science, Ovid MEDLINE, Scopus, EBSCOhost) were searched for articles published from 2005 to 2020. The eligible articles were evaluated using a modified scale of a checklist designed for assessing the quality of ecological studies. Results: A total of 38 studies were included in the review. Precipitation and temperature were most frequently associated with the selected climate-sensitive communicable diseases. A climate change scenario simulation projected that dengue, malaria, and cholera incidence would increase based on regional climate responses. Conclusion: Precipitation and temperature are important meteorological factors that influence the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases. Future studies need to consider more determinants affecting precipitation and temperature fluctuations for better simulation and prediction of the incidence of climate-sensitive communicable diseases.
Highlights
In the last decades, the global burden of disease has shifted from communicable to non-communicable causes [1]
Population refers to general population, exposure of interest is meteorological factors, and outcome is the occurrence of the selected communicable diseases, namely dengue, malaria, cholera, and leptospirosis
The PEO concept guided the formulation of the main review question: What is the impact of meteorological factors on communicable disease incidence? The second review question was: What is the communicable disease projection due to climate change?
Summary
The global burden of disease has shifted from communicable to non-communicable causes [1]. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the other hand has demonstrated how communicable disease remains a significant threat to global health, as the climate crisis continues to influence disease spread in a variety of ways. The evidence shows that the global surface temperature during the most recent decade (2011–2020) was 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] ◦ C higher relative to the preindustrial period (1850–1900), which was driven by human activities [2]. Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global surface temperature will continue to rise, ranging from 1.5 to 4.4 ◦ C in the twenty-first century. A warming of 2 ◦ C and more poses greater risk to human health [3], on vulnerable subpopulations such as the elderly, low-income populations, and people with comorbidities [4,5]
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