Abstract
This paper reviews the performance of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) over the period 1986 through 1991. Forecasts published jointly by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research are decomposed into two components, pure prediction error and data measurement error. The results show that more than two-thirds of observed forecast error could be attributed to data measurement error over all forecast horizons examined, including those as brief as one quarter ahead. Outdated estimation methods for large portions of GNP, namely PCE and S&L, are identified as potential driving forces behind the problems caused by mea~urement error.
Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
