THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS ON VAT REVENUES IN EU COUNTRIES

Abstract

The paper deals with the issue of the impact of changes in selected macroeconomic indicators and the standard VAT rate on the amount of VAT revenue. The aim of the paper was to empirically verify this impact. The analysis was performed using a linear regression analysis and an econometric model, which determined the magnitude of changes in VAT revenue as the indicators increased. Subsequently, it was necessary to point out the correspondence between the calculated and the actual VAT revenue. The analysis followed GDP, consumption expenditure, exports, imports and the VAT rate in the 28 EU countries for the period 2004-2018, while the countries were considered as a separate territorial unit. The contribution set out a hypothesis that was not confirmed, as GDP had the most significant impact on VAT revenues. This caused the most significant increase in VAT revenue by EUR 139,300 while increasing GDP by 1 million EUR. The calculated VAT revenue based on the compiled econometric model indicated that with slight deviations, it copies the actual value of VAT revenue. Based on the analysis, we can conclude that the selected indicators and the level of the standard rate are variables that affect the amount of VAT revenue.