The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators on the Share Prices of Dividend Companies – A Comparative Analysis of Polish and US Issuers for the Period 2016–2020

Abstract

Abstract Research background: The aim of the article is to compare Polish and US dividend companies with potential growth with dividend companies with potential value, including in the period of economic turbulence caused by the pandemic, and to identify macroeconomic determinants that affect changes in the level of share prices of dividend companies with potential value listed on the stock exchange in Poland and the US. An analysis of the literature and international studies conducted allows us to identify inflation, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rate levels, exchange rate changes, and market P/E and P/BV ratios, as well as the PMI index, as the most important macroeconomic factors. Purpose: The aim of the article was to present research on the impact of macroeconomic indicators on the prices of Polish and US shares of dividend companies, divided into shares with potential value and potential growth for the period 2016–2020. The research was enriched by analyzing the return rate on shares and the risk of the share prices of companies with potential value during the turbulence of the economy caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Research methodology: The study was conducted using the Spearman rank correlation coefficient and significance test for the Spearman rank correlation coefficient. A non-parametric t-test was carried out to check whether the estimated correlation is statistically significant. Results: The research indicates that Polish and US dividend companies with potential value have lower average annual return rates than dividend companies with potential growth. Referring to the determinants of the share prices of US dividend companies with potential value, it was found that they are significantly determined by inflation and moderately determined by industrial production and GDP, as well as the P/BV ratio. Novelty: The added and application value are the recommendations regarding the attractiveness of investing in Polish dividend companies with potential value as compared to companies from the US market.