The impact of local government debt expansion on exports: A study based on Chinese enterprise-level data

Abstract

This article establishes a multi-sector general equilibrium mathematical model, using Cobb-Douglas production and utility functions, analyzing the dynamic transmission mechanism within and between infrastructure sector, other non-trade sector and trade sector under the impact of local government debt. Besides, with data related to local government debt in China and data from Chinese industrial enterprises, it examines, from empirical perspective, the impact and transmission mechanisms of local government debt expansion on enterprise exports. The research findings indicate that, firstly, the expansion of local government debt has a significant negative impact on enterprise exports, with a stronger focus on the quantity of exports. Secondly, local government debt creates a crowding-out effect on export industries by promoting the expansion of non-trade sectors, leading to an impact on corporate exports. Finally, the financial constraint effect is an important transmission mechanism through which local government debt affects corporate exports. These conclusions have significant practical implications for risk management and control of local government debt, financial management and driving economic growth through exports.