The Impact of Large-scale Social Restriction on COVID-19 Incidence: A Case Study of Four Regions in Indonesia

Abstract

The Indonesian government has chosen to implement large-scale social restrictions, or Pembatasan Sosial Berskala Besar (PSBB), to minimize the spread of COVID-19. PSBB is a government policy aimed at restricting the internal movement of people in a bid to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2. This study aims to assess the impact of such large-scale social restriction measures on the incidence of COVID-19 cases in four provinces of Indonesia. Time series analysis was used to describe trends in COVID-19 cases by using surveillance data from the Ministry of Health of Indonesia. Quasi-Poisson regression with an interaction model was used to estimate the incidence rate ratio (IRR), and this was calculated to compare the incidence rate before and during PSBB implementation. The trend in COVID-19 cases in the provinces of West Java, East Java, Banten, and Jakarta has continued to fluctuate. These four provinces have continued to experience a significant increase in the COVID-19 incidence rate ratio after the implementation of the first and second PSBB periods compared to the period before PSBB implementation. Lack of proper implementation of the large-scale social restrictions has led to PSBB’s ineffectiveness in reducing the number of COVID-19 cases in each of the provinces.