Abstract
The global impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is unprecedented, and many control and prevention measures have been implemented to test for and trace COVID-19. However, invisible-spreaders, who are associated with nucleic acid detection and asymptomatic infections, have received insufficient attention in the current COVID-19 control efforts. In this paper, we analyze the time series infection data for Italy, Germany, Brazil, India and Sweden since the first wave outbreak to address the following issues through a series of experiments. We conclude that: 1) As of June 1, 2020, the proportion of invisible-spreaders is close to 0.4% in Sweden, 0.8% in early Italy and Germany, and 0.4% in the middle and late stages. However, in Brazil and India, the proportion still shows a gradual upward trend; 2) During the spread of this pandemic, even a slight increase in the proportion of invisible-spreaders could have large implications for the health of the community; and 3) On resuming work, the pandemic intervention measures will be relaxed, and invisible-spreaders will cause a new round of outbreaks.
Highlights
The global impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) has been unprecedented
Invisible-spreaders, who are associated with nucleic acid detection and asymptomatic infections, have received insufficient attention in the current COVID-19 control efforts
Our results suggest that invisible-spreaders enhance the spread of the pandemic, even in the context of prevention and control measures
Summary
The global impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID- 19) has been unprecedented. As of Jun 1, 2020, an outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in 6,016,976 confirmed cases and 370,153 deaths [1, 2]. In order to control the pandemic, many measures have been taken, including: The Closure of workplaces, schools and universities; The social distancing of entire populations; Voluntary home quarantine; and Lockdown [3]. These measures cannot eliminate the problem of false-negative individuals. There is a serious problem that people may not realize: there are false-negative individuals in the population, whose impact on COVID-19 remains to be studied. The false-negatives mentioned in this article are not caused solely by incorrect test results in the traditional sense. We will define false-negative individuals in a broader sense as invisible-
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