Abstract
The COVID−19 pandemic is considered as the biggest global threat worldwide because of millions of confirmed infections, accompanied by hundred thousand deaths over the world. WHO is working with its networks of researchers and other experts to coordinate global work on surveillance, epidemiology, modeling, diagnostics, clinical care and treatment, and other ways to identify, manage the disease and limit onward transmission. Mathematical modeling has become an important tool in analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases. The present study describes the transmission pathways in the infection dynamics, and emphasizes the role of exposed (probably asymptomatic infected) and infected immigrants and the impact of self isolation techniques in the transmission and spread of covid−19 with no home to home check up to develop a mathematical model and show the impact of infected immigrants and self isolation on the dynamics and spread of covid-19. In our model we study the epidemic patterns of Covid−19, from a mathematical modeling perspective. The present model is developed making some reasonable modifications in the corresponding epidemic SCR model by considering symptomatic and asymptomatic infective immigrants as well as self isolation measures. Our numerical results indicate that the corona virus infection would remain pandemic, unless the responsible body takes Self isolation measure and intervention programs and introducing home to home check up of covid−19 to reduce the transmission of the disease from asymptomatic infected (exposed) individual to the susceptible individual. Among the model parameters the exposed and infected self isolation rate and exposed (probably asymptomatic infected) immigration rate are very sensitive parameters for the spread of the virus. Disease free equilibrium point is found and endemic equilibrium state is identified. It is shown that the disease free equilibrium point is locally and globally asymptotically stable if R<sub>0</sub><1, and unstable if it is R<sub>0</sub>>1. Simulation study is conducted using <i>MATLAB ode45</i>.
Highlights
The outbreak of the Corona virus COVID−19 has taken the lives of thousands worldwide and locked out many countries and regions, with yet unpredictable global consequences [1]
Novel corona virus the third zoonotic virus emerging in the this century, after the severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV) in 2002 that spread to 37countries and the Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERSCoV) in 2012 that spread to 27 countries [2]
Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERS-CoV) infections, patients exhibited symptoms of viral pneumonia including fever, difficulty in breathing, and bilateral lung infiltration in the most severe cases [2, 9, 19]. Another typical symptoms of COVID−19 infection include dry cough, fatigue, and severe cases, patients have included mild cases needing supportive care to severe cases requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and Some people develop non respiratory symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea similar to those caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections [2, 8, 9]
Summary
The outbreak of the Corona virus COVID−19 has taken the lives of thousands worldwide and locked out many countries and regions, with yet unpredictable global consequences [1]. Pandemic: A Mathematical Modeling Study respiratory syndrome corona virus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome corona virus (MERS-CoV) infections, patients exhibited symptoms of viral pneumonia including fever, difficulty in breathing, and bilateral lung infiltration in the most severe cases [2, 9, 19]. Another typical symptoms of COVID−19 infection include dry cough, fatigue, and severe cases, patients have included mild cases needing supportive care to severe cases requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation and Some people develop non respiratory symptoms such as nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea similar to those caused by SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infections [2, 8, 9]. Home to home check up is used to identify asymptomatic infected individuals as well as used to manage the contacts of susceptible and asymptomatic infected individuals
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