The impact of industrial transformation and upgrading on fossil energy elasticity in China

Abstract

This study aims to elucidate the profound implications of industrial transformation and upgrading in mitigating dependence on fossil fuels, which holds paramount significance in shaping energy transition strategies—an aspect that is currently missing in existing studies. Leveraging data spanning from 2000 to 2020, encompassing fossil energy consumption and economic development, this paper developed a second-order classification model as a new measure of energy elasticity. Comparing regional variations in fossil energy resilience, an in-depth analysis was conducted on four representative provinces to understand the evolution of their fossil energy consumption structures over time. Correlation analysis was employed to reveal the impact of industrial structures on the reduction of fossil energy dependence. The results indicate distinct spatial variations in the energy transition effect, with the southwest inland region retaining a pronounced reliance on fossil energy sources. However, approximately 80% of the provinces have made substantial progress in reducing fossil energy dependence from 2000 to 2020. Notably, the financial sector and the accommodation and catering industry contribute positively to mitigating fossil energy dependence, while the industrial sector exhibits the opposite effect. Urban agglomeration planning attributes the uneven regional energy transition to the delineation of urban industrial functions. Suggestions for narrowing the energy transition gap include measuring the sustainability of the industrial chain from a life-cycle perspective, avoiding the singular functional division of cities, and developing systematic policies. In the catering industry, adopting alternative cooking energy and implementing the conversion and recycling of catering waste can help prevent risks. This study underscores the positive role of the accommodation and catering industry in the energy transition, along with its potential risks. The study also makes efforts toward advancing the application of the widely used energy elasticity assessment method.