The Impact of Increasing the Minimum Legal Drinking Age from 18 to 20Years in Lithuania on All-Cause Mortality in Young Adults-An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis.

Abstract

To determine the effect of an alcohol policy change, which increased the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) from 18years of age to 20years of age on all-cause mortality rates in young adults (18-19years old) in Lithuania. An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on a dataset from 2001 to 2019 (n= 228months). The model tested the effects of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates (deaths per 100,000 individuals) in three age categories (15-17years old, 18-19years old, 20-22years old) in order to control for general mortality trends in young adults, and to isolate the effects of the MLDA from other alcohol control policies. Additional models that included GDP as a covariate and a taxation policy were tested as well. There was a significant effect of the MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in those 18-19years old, when modelled alone. Additional analyses controlling for the mortality rate of other age groups showed similar findings. Inclusion of confounding factors (policies on alcohol taxation, GDP) eliminated the effects of MLDA. Although there was a notable decline in all-cause mortality rates among young adults in Lithuania, a direct causal impact of MLDA on all-cause mortality rates in young adults was not definitively found.