The impact of increasing carbon dioxide on ozone recovery

Abstract

We have used the Goddard Space Flight Center coupled two‐dimensional model to study the impact of increasing carbon dioxide from 1980 to 2050 on the recovery of ozone to its pre‐1980 amounts. We find that the changes in temperature and circulation arising from increasing CO2 affect ozone recovery in a manner which varies greatly with latitude, altitude, and time of year. Middle and upper stratospheric ozone recovers faster at all latitudes due to a slowing of the ozone catalytic loss cycles. In the lower stratosphere the recovery of tropical ozone is delayed due to a decrease in production and a speed up in the overturning circulation. The recovery of high northern latitude lower stratospheric ozone is delayed in spring and summer due to an increase in springtime heterogeneous chemical loss, and is speeded up in fall and winter due to increased downwelling. The net effect on the higher northern latitude column ozone is to slow down the recovery from late March to late July, while making it faster at other times. In the high southern latitudes the impact of CO2 cooling is negligible. Annual mean column ozone is predicted to recover faster at all latitudes, and globally averaged ozone is predicted to recover approximately 10 years faster as a result of increasing CO2.