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Abstract
Abstract. Hydrological extremes affect societies and ecosystems around the world in many ways, stressing the need to make reliable predictions using hydrological models. However, several different hydrological models can be selected to simulate extreme events. A difference in hydrological model structure results in a spread in the simulation of extreme runoff events. We investigated the impact of different model structures on the magnitude and timing of simulated extreme high- and low-flow events by combining two state-of-the-art approaches: a modular modelling framework (FUSE) and large ensemble meteorological simulations. This combination of methods created the opportunity to isolate the impact of specific hydrological process formulations at long return periods without relying on statistical models. We showed that the impact of hydrological model structure was larger for the simulation of low-flow compared to high-flow events and varied between the four evaluated climate zones. In cold and temperate climate zones, the magnitude and timing of extreme runoff events were significantly affected by different parameter sets and hydrological process formulations, such as evaporation. In the arid and tropical climate zones, the impact of hydrological model structures on extreme runoff events was smaller. This novel combination of approaches provided insights into the importance of specific hydrological process formulations in different climate zones, which can support adequate model selection for the simulation of extreme runoff events.
Highlights
Extreme high- and low-flow events, often referred to as floods and droughts, respectively, have high natural, societal and economic impacts
Several hydrological models were employed to simulate these extremes, with the aim to investigate the impact of hydrological model structure on the simulation of extreme runoff events
Parameters of the hydrological models were sampled in a synthetic experiment, which enabled the examination of the impact of different hydrological process formulations on the magnitude and timing of extreme high- and low-flow events, independent of calibration
Summary
Extreme high- and low-flow events, often referred to as floods and droughts, respectively, have high natural, societal and economic impacts. Fatalities and economic losses related to high-flow events have increased dramatically over the past decades (Di Baldassarre et al, 2010; Winsemius et al, 2016), among others due to an increase in settlements in flood-prone regions. The impacts of low-flow events can be recognised in among others the water supply, crop production and the hydropower sectors (Van Loon, 2015). To mitigate the societal impact of hydrological extremes, knowledge of the processes leading to these extreme events is vital. We aim to investigate the impact of hydrological model structure on the magnitude and timing of simulated extreme runoff events
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