The impact of Hurricane Katrina on urban growth in Louisiana: an analysis using data mining and simulation approaches

Abstract

ABSTRACTUnderstanding human dynamics after a major disaster is important to the region’s sustainable development. This study utilized land cover data to examine how Hurricane Katrina has affected the urban growth pattern in the Mississippi Delta in Louisiana. The study analyzed land cover changes from non-urban to urban in three metropolitan areas, Baton Rouge, New Orleans-Metairie, and Hammond, for two time periods, pre-Katrina (2001–2006) and post-Katrina (2006–2010). The study first applied a focal filter to extract continuous urban areas from the scattered urban pixels in the original remote sensing images. Statistical analyses were applied to develop initial functions between urban growth probability and several driving factors. A genetic algorithm was then used to calibrate the transition function, and cellular automata simulation based on the transition function was conducted to evaluate future urban growth patterns with and without the impact of Hurricane Katrina. The results show that elevation has become a much more important factor after Hurricane Katrina, and urban growth has shifted to higher elevation regions. The elevation most probable for new urban growth increased from 10.84 to 11.90 meters. Moreover, simulated future urban growth in this region indicates a decentralized trend, with more growth occurring in more distant regions with higher elevation. In the New Orleans metropolitan area, urban growth will continue to spill across Lake Pontchartrain to the satellite towns that are more than 50 minutes away by driving from the city center.