The impact of human activities on blue-green water resources and quantification of water resource scarcity in the Yangtze River Basin

Abstract

Under the influence of climate change and human activities, water scarcity and uneven spatial distribution have become critical factors constraining societal development and threatening ecological security. Accurately assessing changes in blue and green water resources (BW and GW) caused by human activities can reveal the actual situation of water scarcity. However, previous research often overlooked the calibration of GW and human water usage, and it rarely delved into the primary human factors leading to water scarcity and potential impact mechanisms. Therefore, based on the PCR-GLOBWB model that considers human impacts, and with reasonable calibration of B/GW and human water usage, hydrological processes were simulated under both human-influenced and natural conditions. A comprehensive assessment of the impact of human activities on BW and GW was conducted. The results show that: (1) BW and GW exhibit a spatial pattern of increasing from northwest to southeast in the basin. From 1961 to 2020, the proportion of BW showed an upward trend, while GW was decreasing; (2) The impact of human activities on changes in water resources is mainly concentrated in the midstream and dowmstream of the basin. Due to human influences, the green water flow (GWF) increased by 3–24.4 mm, and the BW volume increased by 67.2–146.4 mm. However, the green water storage (GWS) decreased by 5.6–75.4 mm; (3) The impact of human activities on blue water scarcity (BWscarcity) is significantly greater than green water scarcity (GWscarcity). The worsening of GWscarcity does not exceed 0.2, while areas where BW reaches significant deterioration (BWscarcity > 1.5) account for 1.3 %, 9.8 %, and 17 % of the upstream, midstream and downstream, respectively. (4) Irrigation activities are the main factor causing water resource scarcity. In the future, it is important to reasonably develop the potential for GW utilization and optimize BW management measures to address water resource crises.