The Impact of Global and Regional Crises on the Economy of the Republic of Armenia։ Quantitative Evaluation

Abstract

This article is devoted to assessing the impact of external shocks on the economy of the Republic of Armenia (RA) in 2008-2009 (the global financial crisis), 2020 (the Covid-19 pandemic and the 44-day Artsakh war), and in 2022 (the Russian-Ukrainianconflict) and the measurement and analysis of the consequences. The work on assessing the impact of crises and external shocks on the country's economy is of a different nature. An attempt is made to assess not only the actual consequences of shocks, but also the amount of losses/damage that manifested itself in the RA economy throughout the entire post-shock period։ uncreated result, lost income. Methods of statistical analysis, such as dynamic series indicators, averages, structural analysis, smoothing trends in series, modeling with dummy variables were used. To understand the mechanisms of the impact of external shocks, we have applied internationally recognized indicators of the distribution of GDP: the formation of GDP by sectors and the use of GDP. As a result of the study, it has turned out that if at the beginning of the period under consideration the RA economy was more sensitive to external factors causing fluctuations in the industry sector, then recently it has already been sensitive in the service sector. It has also turned out that the wave of the crisis of 2007-2009 had serious and long-term consequences, shook the RA economy, and broke the growth potential for almost a decade. On the contrary, the geopolitical events of 2022 have already created favorable conditions for unprecedented economic growth in the RA.