The impact of future climate change on bean cultivation in the Prespa Lake catchment, northern Greece

Abstract

Local impact projections for the Prespa Lake catchment (northern Greece) were generated using the regional climate model RCA4 of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, as driven by the global climate model MPI-ESM-LR of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology under two RCP future emissions scenarios: RCP 4.5 (some mitigating measures applied) and RCP 8.5 (business as usual). These projections indicate that temperatures in this region will rise statistically significantly—by 1–3 °C (RCP 4.5) and 3–6 °C (RCP 8.5)—by the end of the century. Future wet season precipitation is not projected to change, but precipitation variability and maximum dry spell (P 16 °C during the seed stage (15/04–15/05) will increase, while days with maximum temperatures that fall within the optimum range (21 °C < Tmax < 26 °C) during the growth and blossoming stages (15/05–30/08) will decrease. Current irrigation methods using lake water will become more difficult to sustain in the future, as very low lake levels will become more frequent. Based on these simulations, we recommend that heat- and drought-resistant varieties of bean crops that do not require (much) irrigation should be prioritized and promoted for climate-proof agriculture. Sustainable irrigation methods, such as drip irrigation and the use of recycled wastewater, should be selected in the future. These recommendations will be integrated into local farming practice and policy recommendations for regional agricultural adaptation measures.