The impact of fossil generation advances on the emissions of CO 2 in the United States

Abstract

Today, 72% of electric power in the United States is generated from fossil fuels. Additional capacity being brought online to satisfy increasing demand will be almost entirely fossil-based in the next 10–15 years, despite technological advances in renewables and nuclear generation. The U.S. National Energy Strategy of 1991 called for reductions in global warming potential, as measured in billions of tons of CO 2 equivalent, of 10% by the year 2010, and 20% by the year 2030. Achievement of such goals will require emphasis on both transportation and energy industries. The U.S. electric power industry has undertaken a voluntary program to return CO 2 emissions to 1990 levels. New generation in the U.S. will emphasize high efficiency options, based for the next 10–20 years largely on combined Rankine and Brayton cycles. Such combined cycles, whether fired by coal or gas, result in significantly higher efficiency. However, the complete solution to the control of CO 2 emissions in the U.S. will largely depend on improvements in the installed capacity base which will retain the predominant share of electric generation. Reduction of CO 2 emissions, as a consequence of burning less fossil fuel per kW generated, is a near-term option for both developed and developing nations. This paper reviews opportunities for efficiency improvement in existing fossil-fuel plants and the likely deployment of new generation options designed to improve plant efficiency and reduce emissions. It is concluded that the most likely future scenario points to CO 2 emissions from generating plants being 34% higher than 1990 by the year 2010.