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Abstract
During the 2023 Chinese New Year (CNY), many city governments temporarily relaxed firework restrictions, leading to increased sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from the combustion of sulfur-containing fireworks. This study employed the four-dimensional variational (4DVar) assimilation system to examine variations in SO2 emissions in China by assimilating hourly ground-based observations. Two experiments were conducted during CNY in 2022 and 2023 to quantify the variations in SO2 emissions. On CNY’s Eve in 2023, following the relaxation of the firework ban, SO2 emissions surged by 8.22 Gg nationwide compared to the previous day with significant increases in the Energy Golden Triangle (2.037 Gg), the North China Plain (1.709 Gg), and northeast China (0.945 Gg). Emissions peaked on CNY’s Eve and rapidly declined in the following two days but remained elevated compared to the pre-CNY period, indicating lingering effects of firework burning. Compared to the forecasts using the prior emissions, the optimized emissions markedly improved the model forecasts of SO2 during the 2023 CNY period, with an increase in the correlation coefficient (R) from 0.13 to 0.64 and a reduction in the root mean square error (RMSE) by 49.2%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the optimized emissions. These findings will be useful for local governments in formulating strategies for firework burning during CNY.
Published Version
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