Abstract
This article measures the green total factor productivity of 30 provinces (cities) in China from 2008 to 2018 based on the DEA superefficient nonexpected output model, utilizes the carbon emissions trading pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and uses the multiperiod double-difference model and spatial econometric approach to test the effectiveness of carbon emissions trading policy. The results found that carbon emissions trading policies can significantly improve the GTFP of the pilot regions through three main approaches: adjusting the energy mix, improving resource misallocation, and promoting green technological innovation. The market mechanism measured by carbon price and the government administrative intervention measured by fiscal dependence will increase regional GTFP. The spatial and temporal evolution pattern analysis and DSDM show a “pollution refuge” effect in the initial stage of carbon emissions trading; however, the carbon trading pilot can form a demonstration effect in neighbouring areas and promote the improvement of GTFP in neighbouring areas afterwards. The study will help enrich the performance evaluation framework of carbon emission trading policies and further improve the institutional construction of the national carbon market.
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