The Impact of Environmental and Host Factors on Human Cystic Echinococcosis: A County-Level Modeling Study in Western China.

Abstract

Human cystic echinococcosis (CE) is a parasitic disease caused by tapeworms from the Echinococcus granulosus genus, potentially affected by the environment and host animals. West China is one of the most endemic areas of human CE nation and worldwide. The current study identifies the crucial environmental and host factors of human CE prevalence in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and non-Qinghai-Tibet Plateau regions. An optimal county-level model was used to analyze the association between key factors and human CE prevalence within the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Geodetector analysis and multicollinearity tests identify key factors, and an optimal model is developed through generalized additive models. In the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, four key factors were identified from the 88 variables, such as maximum annual precipitation (Pre), maximum summer normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Tibetan population rate (TibetanR), and positive rates of Echinococcus coproantigen in dogs (DogR). Based on the optimal model, a significant positive linear relationship was observed between maximum annual Pre and human CE prevalence. A probable U-shaped curve depicts the non-linear relationship between maximum summer NDVI and the human CE prevalence. Human CE prevalence possesses significant positive non-linear relationships with TibetanR and DogR. Human CE transmission is integrally affected by environmental and host factors. This explains the mechanism of human CE transmission based on the pathogen, host, and transmission framework. Therefore, the current study provides references and innovative ideas for preventing and controlling human CE in western China.