Abstract
As China’s economy becomes more robust, the government has emphasized the need to increase the civil aviation industry’s rapid development and reduce civil aviation’s technological gap compared to other advanced aircraft manufacturers. The use of the appropriate technologies in the aviation industry can help achieve the government’s plan of creating more jobs and increasing its revenue through the civil aviation industry. However, emerging technologies’ uncertainty and dynamic nature have led to significant challenges when these technologies are applied to the aviation manufacturing industry. This article applies the principles and methods of system dynamics based on the gradual-change factors of emerging technologies as identified through expert interviews to construct conceptual models depicting the gradual-change of emerging technologies in the aviation manufacturing field. Historical data from Shaanxi province were used to simulate and analyze the gradual development of emerging technologies. An analysis of the simulation results revealed that the rapid growth of competitive technologies in the growth process inhibits the gradual-change of emerging technologies. Also, increasing enterprise innovation capabilities, market demand expansion, and technology optimization significantly promote emerging technologies’ development and application. Furthermore, the research result shows that competitive products and technologies influence the gradual development of emerging technologies. Finally, the results indicate that the civil aviation industry should optimize the performance and function of emerging technologies during the early development stage instead of at the market application stage.
Highlights
A VIATION manufacturing is a high-tech industry, and China wants to invest more in the aviation industries to Manuscript received July 24, 2020; revised November 9, 2020, February 9, 2021, June 26, 2021, and October 3, 2021; accepted October 5, 2021
Based on the literature review and indicators presented by Zhu [72] with other related works [26], [73]–[78], we interviewed more than ten aviation manufacturing enterprise technical experts, aviation manufacturing researchers, and professors of higher education institutions; we selected topics in the aviation manufacturing field covering technologies, markets, companies, industries, and regions that are relevant to the subject of emerging technologies to comprise our basic data
Through a model analysis of the GC of emerging technologies, this article shows that the technology optimization rate, competitive technology, market demand, and enterprise innovation ability are the main factors influencing the GC process of emerging technologies
Summary
A VIATION manufacturing is a high-tech industry, and China wants to invest more in the aviation industries to Manuscript received July 24, 2020; revised November 9, 2020, February 9, 2021, June 26, 2021, and October 3, 2021; accepted October 5, 2021. Review of this manuscript was arranged by Department Editor T. Emerging technologies represent cutting-edge technologies that can potentially greatly enhance industrial restructuring [2]. The GC can be considered a form of development so that the aviation manufacturing industry becomes a more robust enterprise, or underdevelopment that results in the extinction of some technologies
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