The impact of electric passenger transport technology on the demand for coal-fired power with CCS under a climate policy

Abstract

Abstract Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have the potential to be an economic means of reducing direct (or tailpipe) carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the transportation sector. However, without a climate policy that places a limit on CO 2 emissions from the electric generation sector, the net impact of widespread deployment of PHEVs on overall US CO 2 emissions is not as clear. A comprehensive analysis must consider jointly the transportation and electricity sectors, along with feedbacks to the rest of the energy system. In this paper, we use the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory MiniCAM model to perform an integrated economic analysis of the penetration of PHEVs and the resulting impact on total US CO 2 emissions. Under the assumptions used in this analysis where PHEVs obtain 50–60% of the market for passenger and light-duty trucks, the ability to deploy PHEVs under the two climate policies modeled here results in 6000–7300 Mt CO 2 of additional cost -effective emissions reductions from the US economy over the period 2005–2050. The additional demand for geologic CO 2 storage created by the introduction of the PHEVs is approximately equal to the cumulative geologic CO 2 storage demanded by two to three large 1000 MW IGCC+CCS power plants over a 50 -year period. The introduction of PHEVs into the US transportation sector, coupled with climate policies such as those examined here, can also reduce US demand for oil by 20–30% by 2050 compared to today’s levels.