The Impact of Electoral Context on the Electoral Effectiveness of District-Level Campaigning: Popularity Equilibrium and the Case of the 2015 British General Election

Justin Fisher,Edward Fieldhouse,David Cutts,Bettina Rottweiler

doi:10.1177/0032321718764800

Abstract

Campaigning at the district level can deliver electoral payoffs in a range of countries despite variations in electoral systems. However, effects may not be consistent. Campaigns do not occur in a vacuum, and contextual factors, exogenous to the campaign activity itself, may have a significant effect on the level of their electoral impact. The 2015 General Election in Britain is a particularly interesting case as there was a key contextual factor which could impact significantly on the effectiveness of the parties’ campaigns; the electoral unpopularity of the Liberal Democrats. Using a unique new dataset, this article assesses the contextual impact of party equilibrium at both national and district levels on campaign effectiveness. It represents the first attempt on a large scale to systematically assess the impact of party popularity on campaign effectiveness and demonstrates at both national and district levels the importance of contextual effects on election campaigns.

Highlights

A significant academic literature has demonstrated that if effectively deployed, more intense campaigning at the district or constituency level can deliver electoral payoffs
In the case of the Liberal Democrats, a better comparison is that between the highest campaign intensity scores which occurred in safe seats compared with the party’s hopeless seats. These results suggest a difference of 1.8 percentage points of the electorate where a candidate reached an average campaign intensity of a Liberal Democrat held seat (149) compared to a similar candidate where the average campaign intensity mirrored that found in hopeless seats (77)
The results suggest that local campaign intensity did provide a boost in support – but not enough to save the majority of Liberal Democrat seats

Summary

Introduction

A significant academic literature has demonstrated that if effectively deployed, more intense campaigning at the district or constituency level can deliver electoral payoffs. Did the electoral effectiveness of parties’ campaigns reflect national levels of party popularity? There was popularity equilibrium for the Conservative and Labour parties – neither was especially unpopular (nor especially popular) – suggesting conditions for both parties to have effective campaigns.

Results

Conclusion