The impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on money demand in India

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of the paper is to address money demand instability and investigate the impact of economic uncertainty, stock market uncertainty and monetary uncertainty on money demand in India over the period 2003Q1–2019Q4.Design/methodology/approachThe study checks the stationarity of the variables through standard unit root tests. Based on the mixed order of variables' integration, the authors adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to confirm the cointegration and check the stability of the money demand function (MDF).FindingsThe findings confirm the presence of cointegration and reveal a well-specified MDF, which exhibits stable parameters. Besides the conventional variables, all forms of uncertainties emerge as the essential long-term determinants of money demand. Long-run findings show that people demand more money to avoid the future financial crunch amid high economic, monetary and stock market uncertainties.Practical implicationsThe paper recommends, based on the findings, incorporating the monetary aggregates in the monetary policy framework as one of the essential information variables to control the fluctuation in the price level under the current flexible inflation targeting (FIT) regime.Social implicationsThe findings also add to the knowledge of economic agents in terms of the overall response of individuals to changes in different forms of uncertainties, thereby helping to formulate their portfolios more diligently.Originality/valueThe current work is the first of its kind in the Indian context. The incorporation of uncertainty measures in the MDF adds to the existing knowledge on money demand.