The Impact of Economic Growth on Spatial Development of a Region

Abstract

The prospective scenarios of spatial development of Primorsky region have been investigated, the core area of the Russian Far East. The study examines two assumptions regarding economic and spatial development of the region. One is a free-market approach, which spontaneously concentrates business activities within a territory, and another is a model of “retention” of the whole territory when the governments should represent incentives for a region sustainable economic development due to the geopolitical factors. Forecast of economic, investment and migration processes in the region may imply several scenarios of long-term spatial emergency with different outcomes. Assuming advanced economic growth in Primorsky region, considering implementation of all announced investment projects and government’s programs, considering the natural and migration growth, adjusted population in the region may exceed 2025 million people in 2030. It implies extension of traditional and new settlements in the central, southern economic development zones, at the border zone, and in the eastern coastal zone of the Primorsky region. It is probable a polarized polycentric model scenario, which focuses at achieving the strategic objectives of spatial development, that require strengthening and development of the spot and linear elements of a spatial framework at the highest hierarchical level. However, in the same time, there are unpredictable consequences of depopulation of the peripheral areas of the region. Evenly hierarchical model focuses at retention of the territory and aims at overcoming the territorial gaps in development of the economy and quality of life. A networking cluster model may create a new spatial structure, cementing the economic space of the region and integrating sectors of “new” and “traditional” economy. The process may stipulate a “compression” of population and industries by concentration it around the centers of economic growth, which include major cities. The scenario of a polarized growth assumes that formation of a new frame structure of the spatial organization of Primorsky region is based on identification and support of economic zones—“growth locomotives.”