Abstract

Political and economic stability is one of the most important pillars of growth and prosperity and a basic requirement for all countries, regardless of their political system, as instability creates an inappropriate environment for economic and social development, foremost of which is the weakness and deterioration of economic growth rates. The research aims to study the impact of economic and political instability on economic growth in Yemen during the period (1990-2017). However, the research problem is focused on determining the extent to which economic and political instability contributes to economic growth, and then the hypothesis is that this instability leads to a deterioration of economic growth. The research reached several results, the most important of which is the negative growth of the local product during the period under study, the high rates of inflation, deficits of the general budget, balance of payments and political instability, and that the origin of instability is due to many internal and external political and economic reasons. In general, the standard estimates indicated that the variable of the public budget deficit was more influential in economic growth, while political stability came second, then the balance of payments deficit was the weaker effect of inflation. The research recommended the use of monetary and financial policy interventions to achieve economic stability, and the necessity of reforming the structure of the political system, building a civil state, the peaceful transfer of power, and excluding social marginalization, Panel Data Methodology.

Highlights

  • The research problem is focused on determining the extent to which economic and political instability contributes to economic growth, and the hypothesis is that this instability leads to a deterioration of economic growth

  • The research reached several results, the most important of which is the negative growth of the local product during the period under study, the high rates of inflation, deficits of the general budget, balance of payments and political instability, and that the origin of instability is due to many internal and external political and economic reasons

  • The standard estimates indicated that the variable of the public budget deficit was more influential in economic growth, while political stability came second, the balance of payments deficit was the weaker effect of inflation

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Summary

Introduction

‫يعد الاستق ارر السياسي والاقتصادي من أهم مرتك ازت النمو والازدهار ومطلباً أساسياً لكل البلدان مهما‬ ‫تباينت في نظامها السياسي‪ ،‬ذلك أن عدم الاستق ارر يخلق بيئة غير ملائمة للتنمية الاقتصادية والاجتماعية‬ ‫يأتي في مقدمتها ضعف وتدهور معدلات النمو الاقتصادي‪ .‬ويهدف البحث إلى د ارسة مدى تأثير عدم‬ ‫الاستق ارر الاقتصادي والسياسي في النمو الاقتصادي في اليمن خلال المدة (‪.)2017-1990‬على أن‬ ‫مشكلة البحث تتركز في تحديد مدى إسهام عدم الاستق ارر الاقتصادي والسياسي في النمو الاقتصادي‪ ،‬ومن‬ ‫ثم تتبلور الفرضية في أن عدم الاستق ارر هذا يفضي إلى تدهور النمو الاقتصادي ‪ .‬وتوصل البحث إلى‬ ‫عدد من النتائج‪ ،‬أهمها النمو السلبي للناتج المحلي خلال المدة قيد الد ارسة‪ ،‬وارتفاع كل من معدلات‬ ‫التضخم وعجو ازت الموازنة العامة ومي ازن المدفوعات وعدم الاستق ارر السياسي‪ ،‬وأن أصل عدم الاستق ارر‬ ‫يعود إلى جملة من الأسباب السياسية والاقتصادية الداخلية والخارجية ‪ .‬وفي المجمل بينت التقدي ارت‬ ‫القياسية معنوية المتغي ارت المستقلة‪ ،‬وأن متغير عجز الموازنة العامة كان أكثر تأثي ارً في النمو الاقتصادي‪،‬‬ ‫في حين حل الاستق ارر السياسي في المرتبة الثانية ثم عجز مي ازن المدفوعات فيما كان التأثير الأضعف‬ ‫للتضخم ‪ .‬أوصى البحث باستخدام تدخلات السياسة النقدية والمالية لتحقيق الاستق ارر الاقتصادي‪،‬‬ ‫وبضرورة اصلاح بنية النظام السياسي‪ ،‬وبناء الدولة المدنية‪ ،‬والتداول السلمي للسلطة‪ ،‬واستبعاد التهميش‬.

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