Abstract
Though uncertainties of input variables may have significant implications on building simulations, they are quite often not identified, quantified, or included in building simulations results. This paper considers climatic deterministic, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis through a series of simulations using the CIBSE UKCIP02 future weather years, CIBSE TM48 for design summer years (DSYs), and the latest CIBSE TM49 DSY future weather data which incorporates the UKCP09 projections to evaluate the variance and the impact of differing London future weather files on indoor operative temperature of a detached dwelling in the United Kingdom using the CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria. The work analyses the variability of comparable weather data set to identify the most influential weather parameters that contribute to thermal comfort implications for these dwellings. The choice of these weather files is to ascertain their differences, as their development is underpinned by different climatic projections. The overall pattern of the variability of the UKCIP02 and UKCP09 Heathrow weather data sets under Monte Carlo sensitivity consideration do not seem to be very different from each other. The deterministic results show that the operative temperatures of the UKCIP02 are slightly higher than those of UKCP09, with the UKCP09 having a narrow range of operative temperatures. The Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis quantified and affirmed the dry bulb and radiant temperatures as the most influential weather parameters that affect thermal comfort on dwellings.
Highlights
There is a direct bearing of changes in climatic conditions on buildings in relation to buildings energy performance and thermal comfort
In 2009, the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09), the fifth and most comprehensive prediction of climate change projections was published by the United Kingdom Impacts Programme which has a collective contribution from the Met Office Hadley Centre, UK Climate Impacts Programme and over thirty different organisations [7] to provide practical support for effective adaptation to organisations whose work and functions are underpinned by climate change [7]
Monte Carlo approaches are used in estimating climatic deterministic, uncertainty, and sensitivity analysis through a series of simulations using the UK Charted Institution of Building Services Engineers Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) UKCIP02 future weather years, CIBSE TM48 for design summer years (DSY), and the latest CIBSE TM49 DSY future weather data which incorporates the UKCP09 projections, to evaluate the variance in climatic projections and the impact of future climate change on the thermal comfort of a detached dwelling in the United Kingdom using the CIBSE TM52 overheating criteria
Summary
There is a direct bearing of changes in climatic conditions on buildings in relation to buildings energy performance and thermal comfort. CIBSE has currently developed a new methodology for producing DSYs based on the UKCP09 probabilistic climate projections for use in building simulations This offers a better correlation between the likelihood of the DSY occurring and the likelihood of building overheating [14]. The new DSYs include the two additional years of 1976 (a year with two-week extreme heat wave) and 2003 (a year with more persistent warm summer) as the earlier DSY based on 1989 weather data from London Heathrow Airport (LHR) does not represent a sufficiently warm year for overheating risk assessment in buildings [14] It considers three greenhouse emissions scenarios of high, medium, and low, three future periods of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, and differing levels of probabilities of 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles [14,15]
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