The Impact of Degradation of Islands’ Land Ecosystems Due to Climate Change on Tourists’ Travel Decisions

Abstract

The degradation of terrestrial ecosystems may change the perceived value of destinations for tourists. This article analyses tourists’ travel decisions when the land ecosystems of the destinations they are planning to visit are threatened by climate change impacts. More specifically, it analyses tourists’ willingness to pay for their holidays at island destinations endangered by the increase in forest fires, terrestrial wildlife losses, water shortages, and damages to infrastructure and cultural heritage. With this aim in mind, a discrete choice model was designed and empirically tested with a representation of European travellers, using an alternative specific conditional logistic regression. The results show that the sharp increase in the occurrence of wildfires has had the greatest negative impact on tourists’ willingness to pay for their next holiday at the affected tourist destination, followed by severe losses in terrestrial wildlife and significant damage to cultural heritage. This study highlights the importance of having accurate information on future climate change conditions impacting land attributes at the local level, not only to be more effective in the early prevention of threats to prioritise but also to confront the potential damage to the tourism economy more efficiently.