The Impact of Criminal Violence on Regime Legitimacy in Latin America

Abstract

What is the impact of exposure to criminal violence on support for political institutions in Latin America? The increase in criminal violence in the region since the return to democratic rule makes this a timely question. Several scholars have demon- strated the impact of a series of variables (political performance, economic performance, interpersonal trust, perception of corruption) on citizens' support for political institu- tions (system support). The goal of this study is to assess the impact of two additional variables (victimization and perception of violence) that have been neglected in the lit- erature. I test the impact of exposure to violence on system support by using survey data from the 2004 edition of the Latin American Public Opinion Project. My fi ndings demonstrate that both victimization and high perception of violence have a negative impact on system support in Latin America. Does criminal violence affect support for political institutions (i.e., system sup- port)? What is the impact of victimization and high perception of violence on citizens' system support? The explosion of criminal violence in Latin America in the past twenty years offers an opportunity to try to answer these questions. Many Latin American countries democratized at some point between the late 1970s and the mid-1990s. The focus of the scholarly community has shifted from democratic transitions to the quality and performance of these new democracies (Smith 2005). However, the dramatic increase in criminal violence may pose a re- doubtable threat to the stability of democratic institutions in Latin America. Yet, remarkably, this critical issue has received limited attention in the literature. 1 In this article, I look into one potentially negative effect of the increase of violence on the health of democracy in Latin America. I analyze the impact of skyrocketing criminal violence on the legitimacy of democratic institutions in the region. It is essential to advance our understanding of the causes of political distrust in these new democracies, as it has been demonstrated that a decrease in political support can lead to political instability. In fact, political distrust can be self-reinforcing and can pave the way for further dissatisfaction with political leaders and governmental institutions, which in turn can lead to public support for measures that would radically alter institutional arrangements (Hetherington 1998). Moreover, low levels of system support can trigger unconventional and ag-