The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on reported tuberculosis incidence and mortality in China: An interrupted time series analysis.

Abstract

The reported number of cases and deaths from common infectious diseases can change during major public health crises. We explored whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) had an impact on tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality in China based on routinely reported TB data. We used TB data used from the monthly national notifiable infectious disease reports in China from January 2015 to January 2023. Based on an interrupted time series (ITS) design, we applied Poisson and negative binomial regression models to assess the changes of reported TB incidence and mortality before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We found a significant and immediate decrease in the levels of both reported TB incidence (relative risk (RR) = 0.887; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.810-0.973) and mortality (RR = 0.448; 95% CI = 0.351-0.572) at the start of COVID-19 outbreak. During the pandemic, the slope of reported incidence decreased significantly (RR = 0.994; 95% CI = 0.989-0.999), while the slope of reported mortality increased sharply (RR = 1.032; 95% CI = 1.022-1.041) owing to an abrupt rise in reported mortality after January 2022. Both TB incidence and mortality decreased immediately at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over a longer period, the COVID-19 pandemic had contributed to a sustained and more significant decrease in reported incidence, and a delayed but sharp increase in reported mortality.