Abstract
Objectives: This paper examines the extent to which hotspots of shooting violence changed following the emergence of Covid-19. Methods: This analysis uses Andresen's Spatial Point Pattern test, correcting for multiple comparisons, on a 10-year sample of geocoded shooting data from Buffalo New York. Results: This work finds zero micro grid cells are statistically different from pre to post Covid stay at home orders and instead that the observed rise in shootings in the sample appears to be a consistent proportional increase across the city. Conclusions: These findings provide law enforcement with useful information about how to respond to the recent rise in shooting violence but additional work is needed to better understand what, among a number of competing theories, is driving the increase.
Highlights
Objectives: This paper examines the extent to which hotspots of shooting violence changed following the emergence of Covid-19
This paper examines the impact of the emergence of Covid-19 and subsequent stay at home order (SAHO) in Buffalo, a mid-sized urban center in upstate NY, on the spatial distribution of shootings
With the understanding that shootings in Buffalo increased during the study period based on prior work (Kim and Phillips, 2020), this study is concerned with whether shooting locations remained stable but intensified in the volume of shooting violence, or if areas of shooting violence “shifted” in space following the emergence of Covid-19 and New York States SAHO
Summary
This paper examines the impact of the emergence of Covid-19 and subsequent stay at home order (SAHO) in Buffalo, a mid-sized urban center in upstate NY, on the spatial distribution of shootings. With the understanding that shootings in Buffalo increased during the study period based on prior work (Kim and Phillips, 2020), this study is concerned with whether shooting locations remained stable but intensified in the volume of shooting violence, or if areas of shooting violence “shifted” in space following the emergence of Covid-19 and New York States SAHO. In one of the few analyses of the impacts of COVID-19 and SAHO on shooting violence Kim and Phillips (2020) found a significant rise in shooting violence in Buffalo, New York following the emergence of the pandemic and subsequent social distancing requirements. The paper extends the prior work by examining whether spatial patterns of those shootings changed. While there is a wealth of prior city level analyses of changes in Covid crime patterns, few studies to date have examined spatial changes in addition to macro city-level changes. This study contributes to the simple question of, in Buffalo, would a hot spot policing strategy targeting shootings need to update its targeted areas?
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