The Impact of COVID-19 on Mobility and Congestion

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has been posing unprecedented challenges for the transport sector. Urban travel has declined all over the world, but not uniformly for all modes; public transportation has taken the hardest blow. As a result, there has been a widespread reduction in public transport ridership: according to recent estimates, passenger numbers in cities around the world have been at the peak of the pandemic down 70 to 90 percent. This paper examines the short-run economic impact of the pandemic, as well as the generic and sector-specific restrictions that were adopted to control the outbreak of the pandemic, based on a rich database tracking on a daily basis public transport usage and traffic congestion. The analysis confirms the significant impact of sector-specific restrictions and broader lockdown measures in terms of reduction in urban mobility and congestion. The analysis finds that the spread of the disease itself had an economic impact distinct from that of the lockdown measures. There are also different results on the magnitude of impact of cross-sectoral vis-à-vis sectoral restrictions on urban mobility and congestion. Whereas the magnitude of the spread of the disease is higher than the overall stringency of the lockdown, the impact of restrictions of public transit has been much greater than the spread of the disease and acts indirectly as a disincentive to move on the road. More effective safety measures, such as those related to the use of facial covering, are associated with higher use of public transport and an increase in the likelihood of low congestion. There is no evidence of intermodal competition between public transportation and road transport. In particular, the expansion of car registration has not led to a decrease in public transport mobility, but it is significantly associated with an increase in traffic congestion, particularly in mega-cities.