The impact of COVID-19 and missed diagnosis of breast cancer.

Abstract

1118 Background: To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on breast cancer diagnosis based on age, race, and regions within the US. Methods: Data on breast cancer incidence were obtained from the United States Cancer Statistics (USCS) program from 2001-2020. SEER*Stat 8.4.1.2 and Joinpoint regression program 5.0.2 were used to calculate estimated and actual incidence rates per 100,000 females. Rates were age-adjusted as appropriate. We compared actual breast cancer incidence rates in the year 2020 to estimated rates based on trends from 2001-2019 with sub-analyses for age, race, and region. Results: From 2001 to 2019, there were 4,005,763 identified cases of breast cancer in the United States. In 2019, prior to the pandemic, the incidence rate of breast cancer was 162.87 per 100,000 in females in the US. Based on the data from 2001 to 2019, breast cancer increased by 1.32% per year (p<0.001). Using these prior trends, it was expected that the incidence of breast cancer to be 165.02 per 100,000 adults (265,206 total cases) in 2020. However, the reported incidence was only 147.77 per 100,000 (237,471). Thus, there were 10.46% (27,735) less breast cancer cases than expected. The missed diagnosis rate was more pronounced in older age groups with 15.89%, 14.75%, and 13.27% cases missed for the age groups 85+, 80-84, and 70-74 respectively. Based on racial and ethnic groups, we found that Hispanic females had the greatest number of missed cases at 13.04% compared to 12.68%, 10.57%, and 8.94% of Non-Hispanic Asians and Pacific Islander (NHAPI), Non-Hispanic White (NHW), and Non-Hispanic Black (NHB) females respectively. The discrepancy between expected and actual number of cases by U.S. region ranged from the highest in the Northeast (11.90%) followed by 11.83%, 10.60%, and 9.49% in the West, South, and Midwest regions respectively. An intersectionality analysis showed that 40–44-year-old Hispanic females residing in the Midwest region had the largest discrepancy at 27.01%. Conclusions: The reported breast cancer cases significantly declined during the pandemic. Older age, Hispanic race and ethnicity, and those residing in the Northeast region had the greatest number of missing cases. As breast cancer is the most common cancer in the United States, more mitigating factors are needed to improve the access to care for patients in these at-risk groups to improve detection of breast cancer and its associated mortality.