The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine Coverage on Deaths Outcome in Africa, Subregional Differences and the need for a Renewed Multi-level Effort

Abstract

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2 continues to raise health and socio-economical concerns globally. The recent discovery of the B.1.1.529 (Omicron) variant with its critical mutations has heightened the debate about the need for a better global vaccination rollout to prevent the emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 strains. Optimizing vaccine rollout in Africa is crucial for the management of the pandemic and preventing the rise of new strains. To better direct efforts and interventions it is important to know what parts of the continent necessitate more attention. Material and Methods: 30 African countries were grouped in five geographical subregions, six countries for each subregion. Data on confirmed cases, doses administered, fully vaccinated, and deaths were extracted from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center database. The ANOVA test evaluated differences in means for these variables classified by subregions. The correlation test and the linear regression examined the relationship between these independent variables and total deaths. Results: There was a significant regional difference in confirmed cases (P<0.0001), and in fully vaccinated (P=0.01) across the five subregions. The overall model showed that there is a significant regional difference in the three variables’ effect on total deaths (P<0.0001). The linear regression indicated an association between the total number of deaths in relation to the confirmed cases, doses administered, and fully vaccinated (P<0.0001). Discussion: This study indicates that a relation exists between total deaths and the variables confirmed cases, doses administered, and fully vaccinated. More importantly, African countries grouped in geographical subregions perform differently in terms of vaccine rollout, and that offers insights for better and oriented interventions.