The Impact of COVID-19 on Chinas Quarterly Economy Growth Rate: Evidence from ARIMA Model

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic unleashed unprecedented economic turmoil worldwide, with China, as its epicenter, experiencing profound repercussions. This study investigates the pandemic's impact on China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate, considering macroeconomic, microeconomic, and societal dimensions. COVID-19 disrupted international trade, manufacturing, and supply chains, causing significant economic contractions. China's resilient response strategies, encompassing fiscal policies, digital transformation, and e-commerce promotion, played a pivotal role in stabilizing the economy. Utilizing ARIMA modeling and credible data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, this research quantitatively assesses the pandemic's effects. It highlights the necessity for adaptable economic models that incorporate dynamic societal changes during crises. Policymakers can draw valuable insights from this study for crafting effective crisis response strategies, while investors can identify sector-specific opportunities in technology and related industries, influenced by shifts in consumer behavior. In summary, this study offers a comprehensive analysis of COVID-19's impact on the growth rate of China's GDP, providing a methodological framework, policy implications, and investment insights. As global economies recover from the pandemic's aftermath, these findings will continue to guide decision-makers in building resilient and adaptable economies for the future.