The impact of COVID-19 Crisis on the Global Economy and the North American Hegemonic Cycle: A reading

Patrícia Nasser de Carvalho,Elói Martins Senhoras

doi:10.18800/agenda.202001.001

Abstract

Based on the theorical framework that considers contextual and structural long-term perspectives of world hegemonic cycles and transitions of global powers, the aim of this reading is to critically analyze the ongoing and potential impact of the pandemic in the light of a conjunctural and historical perspective. The hypothesis is that although the COVID-19 crisis has already had deep negative impact on the global economy and represents a perfect storm for the US hegemony, seeing as the country is being challenged by many factors with strong magnitude and adverse effects, indeed it would not generate an immediate terminal crisis of the North American hegemony. Just in the long run the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to trigger another world hegemonic power. The reading is based on the theoretical perspectives of world hegemonic cycles in international relations and is methodologically characterized as an explanatory and descriptive study and is built on a bibliographic review for the collection of theoretical and historical data.

Highlights

The study of the dynamics of international relations has been an object of a wide range of theoretical and historical perspectives that flourished over time during the construction of this epistemological field
The US hegemony is experiencing a relative decline which opens a window of opportunity for rising global powers, since there were signs that a hegemonic transition has been prevailing since the 1980s after three previous different contesting phases of US hegemony
The US is experiencing a perfect storm derived from a multiple crisis, once the COVID-19 pandemic is considered an outlier variable in the world hegemonic cycles transitions dynamics and brought big impact to the North American hegemony

Summary

Introduction

The study of the dynamics of international relations has been an object of a wide range of theoretical and historical perspectives that flourished over time during the construction of this epistemological field They analyze different actors, forces and facts that impact on the short, middle and long term through conjunctural and structural frameworks regarding the redistribution of power among national states and on the global system in cyclical transitions of different world hegemonic cycles of capital and power accumulation. Taking into account the wide spillovers of COVID-19 and based on a theorical framework that considers contextual and structural long-term perspectives of world hegemonic cycles and transitions of global powers, the aim of this reading of the ongoing and potential impact of the pandemic in the light of a conjunctural and historical perspective is to critically analyze how the US hegemony is being challenged by many factors with strong magnitude and adverse effects. The conclusion offers the final word concerning the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy and on the North American world hegemony, which does not mean an immediate terminal crisis of this global power

Theoretical and contextual considerations

The US Hegemonic Cycle and the impact of COVID-19 crisis

Possible scenarios

Conclusion