The impact of cost structure on supply chain cash flow risk

Abstract

Managing supply chain cash flow risk has become a crucial task for many cash-stressed businesses. Cash flows usually lag behind operating earnings and exhibit higher volatility than earnings, making them less predictable. Through the three components of the cash conversion cycle – days in inventory, receivables, and payables, this study investigates the impact of cost structure – cost ratios and cost compositions – on cash flow risk (standard deviation) and explains why and how management philosophies, such as Just-In-Time, and new production technologies, such as 3D printing, can lower cash flow risk by shortening days in inventory and shifting cost structure. An analytical model built on a simple demand process examines the basic relationship between cost structure and cash flow risk while a simulation approach studies the same relationship under a more general demand process with additional modelling considerations and a benchmark test. The simulation approach is applied on a publicly traded company’s financial data to demonstrate how supply chain process improvement can reduce the cash flow risk.