The impact of cognitive impairment on disease burden in Chinese patients with multiple sclerosis: A model simulation study

Abstract

Cognitive impairment (CI) is prevalent in Chinese patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). A decision analytic model was constructed to simulate Chinese patients with newly diagnosed RRMS and their matched control cohort without MS for the risks of developing CI, developing secondary progressive MS (SPMS), and mortality. Both English and Chinese bibliographic databases were searched for evidence to estimate model inputs. Base case analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted for the point estimations and uncertainty of the measured burden outcomes. Model simulations estimated that the lifetime cumulative risk of CI in newly diagnosed RRMS patients was 85.2%. Relative to the matched control cohort, newly diagnosed RRMS patients were associated with a lower life expectancy (33.2 years vs. 41.7 years, difference: -8.5 years), lower quality-adjusted life years (QALY) (18.4 QALY vs. 38.4 QALY, difference: -19.9 QALY), and higher lifetime medical costs (¥613,883 vs. ¥202,726, difference: ¥411,157) and indirect costs (¥1,099,021 vs. ¥94,612, difference: ¥1,004,410). Patients who developed CI accounted for at least half of the measured burden. The disease burden outcomes were mainly driven by the risk of developing CI, progression risk from RRMS to SPMS, hazard ratios of mortality associated with CI relative to no CI, utility of patients with RRMS, annual relapse risk, and annual costs of personal care. Most Chinese patients with newly diagnosed RRMS are likely to develop CI in their lifetime, and such patients that develop CI could significantly contribute to the disease burden of RRMS.