The impact of coffee leaf rust on migration by smallholder coffee farmers in Guatemala

Abstract

Climate change is driving severe outbreaks of crop diseases, decimating agricultural production, and disrupting rural livelihoods globally. While the patterns of agricultural disease outbreaks are well documented, less is known about the extent to which climate change-driven diseases are affecting crop production, disrupting farmer livelihoods, and potentially altering farmer migration patterns. In this study, we investigated the impacts of an extended outbreak (2007–2016) of coffee leaf rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) on the livelihoods and migration decisions of smallholder coffee farmers in ten communities in eastern Guatemala, comparing coffee farming households from communities that had a history of migration with those that did not. We used a mixed-methods approach to assess the impacts of CLR on coffee production and farmer livelihoods, documented the migration decisions of household members, and compared migration rates and destinations between migrant communities and previously non-migrant communities. We also assessed the effects of crop loss, household wealth, and information access on the use of migration as a coping strategy among affected households. We found that smallholder farmer households lost an average of 71% (SE = 2%) of their coffee production during their self-defined worst year of CLR impact. Household migration almost doubled in response to CLR, both in communities that had a history of migration and in historically non-migrant communities. Migration was more likely among households that experienced greater crop losses of due to CLR. In contrast, migration was lower among households that had greater access to information. Our study demonstrates the potential for climate-driven disease outbreaks to significantly impact farmers’ livelihoods and increase farmer migration from rural regions, and highlights the need for urgent action to support farmers to adapt to these changing conditions.