The impact of CO2 emission synergy on PM2.5 emissions and a dynamic analysis of health and economic benefits: A case study of China's transportation industry

Abstract

PM2.5 is the primary pollutant that worsens air quality and has many adverse effects on human health and the social economy. Measures to reduce CO2 can synergistically reduce PM2.5. This paper focuses on the transportation industry in China, which has high carbon and high pollution emissions. It initially evaluates the synergistic effect of CO2 emissions and the impact of other socio-economic drivers on PM2.5 emissions. Subsequently, it provides a comparative analysis of the projected trajectories of PM2.5 emissions, along with the associated health and economic repercussions, across three scenarios from 2021 to 2030. The results show that: (1) The synergy effect of CO2 reduction emerges as the primary driver for mitigating PM2.5 emissions, whereas economic growth stands as the primary contributor to their escalation. (2) Both the green development (GD) scenario and the technological breakthrough (TB) scenario forecast a continuous decline in PM2.5 in 2021–2030. By 2030, the GD and TB scenarios forecast a reduction of 32,000 and 39,500 tonnes of PM2.5, respectively, compared to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. (3) By 2030, in contrast to the BAU scenario, premature deaths will be reduced by 39.55%, and economic losses will be reduced by 234.738 billion CNY in the GD scenario; premature deaths will be reduced by 50.04%, and economic losses will be reduced by 263.107 billion CNY in the TB scenario.