The Impact of Cloud Cover on Major League Baseball

Abstract

Abstract Although it is often suggested that direct sunlight may affect a player’s vision, no published studies have analyzed this interaction. In this research, a variety of statistical tests were utilized to study how baseball variables respond to different cloud cover conditions. Data from more than 35 000 Major League Baseball games, spanning the seasons from 1987 through 2002, were studied. Eleven baseball variables covering batting, pitching, and fielding performance were included. Overall responses were analyzed, as well as individual responses at 21 different stadiums. Home and away team performances were evaluated separately. This study then synthesized the synergistic differences in offensive production, pitching performance, and fielding performance into changes in the “home field advantage.” Offensive production generally declines during clearer-sky daytime games compared to cloudy-sky daytime games, while pitching performance increases as conditions become clearer. Strikeouts show the strongest response in the study, increasing from 5.95 per game during cloudy-sky conditions to 6.40 per game during clear-sky conditions. The number of errors per game increases during clear-sky daytime games compared to cloudy-sky daytime games, while fly outs increase and ground outs decrease between daytime and nighttime games, regardless of the amount of cloud cover. Results at individual stadiums vary, with some stadiums displaying a very strong association between baseball performance and changes in cloud cover, while others display a weak association. All of these impacts affect the home field advantage, with the home team winning 56% of the games played under clear skies compared to 52.3% of the games played under cloudy skies.