The Impact of Closed-mindedness on the Assessment of Threat: An Empirical Study

Colin Wastell ,Nicole Weeks,Wajma Ebrahimi,Piers Duncan,Alexander J Wearing

doi:10.2174/1874350101306010010

Abstract

In the past decade official reports into intelligence failures have asserted that analysts are subject to the effects of everyday cognitive limitations. The present study examined the influence of an individual's inclination toward closedmindedness on a computer administered simulated intelligence analysis task. Results indicate that several components of closed-mindedness as measured by the need for cognitive closure scale [NFC] significantly predicted the assessed level of threat posed to and general attitude toward a visiting government delegation by a foreign nation's population. Most significantly higher scores on the NFC subscale ‘need for predictability’ were associated with higher scores on the initial assessed threat level. This effect remained after controlling for the amount of information accessed. The implications of these findings for the conduct of intelligence analysis are discussed.

Highlights

Western democracies in the 21st century have been forced to confront a resurgent threat from terrorists whose actions have fundamentally challenged the efficacy of existing national security systems, including long-practiced methods of intelligence collection and analysis
The findings of this study indicate that high levels of closed-mindedness can have disastrous consequences in the area of intelligence analysis
For hypothesis 2, which tentatively predicted that participants high in at least one Need For Cognitive Closure (NFC) subscale would spend less average time in cells, none of the NFC components reached the 0.05 criteria but the effect size for NFC predictability component was medium at Cohen’s d= 0.58

Summary

Introduction

Western democracies in the 21st century have been forced to confront a resurgent threat from terrorists whose actions have fundamentally challenged the efficacy of existing national security systems, including long-practiced methods of intelligence collection and analysis. Analysts are charged with identifying, selecting, analyzing and judging information that is relevant to the assessment of a potential threat. This task is carried out in an environment that is characterized by uncertainty, ambiguity, deception, time pressure and high stakes outcomes. The context in which intelligence analysts’ work is very likely to have an impact on reasoning skills In addition to these contextual factors forty years of research into human reasoning and thinking generally has demonstrated that even rational, intelligent, competent adults, who are not under the pressure on intelligence analysts, are prone to errors and biases in their thinking [4, 5]

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