The impact of climatic warming on permafrost conditions in Russia1

Abstract

Abstract The paper examines the probable impact of climatic warming on permafrost, considering three possible climatic variants of maritime, continental, and moderated continental conditions, and two variants of snow cover conditions— namely minimal and deep snow cover. Calculations reveal that a rise in mean annual temperature of 2° C will produce a rise in the temperature of earth materials varying from 0.8 to 6.6° C; a temperature rise of 6.6° C will occur in areas of continental climate with no vegetation and a deep snow cover. On the basis of computer modeling, the authors then map the displacement (within Russia) of the southern boundary of permafrost and the increase in depth of thaw over a 50‐year period, resulting from a rise in mean annual air temperature of 2° C. Strategies for construction techniques on permafrost to cope with anticipated climatic warming are suggested.