The impact of climate on infectious diseases in under-sixteen children in Varanasi City, India: A Prospective Cohort Study

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The effects of climate on infectious diseases associated with children may increase their vulnerability under climate change scenario, the effect will be much apparent in an unfair socioeconomic condition like India. Thus the study aims in analyzing the association of climate with infectious diseases in children under 16 years of age in Varanasi city, India. METHODS: In a community based cohort of 457 children under 16years of age followed for three years from January 2017 to Jan 2020, a binomial regression was used to examine the association of maximum temperature; Tmax, relative; RH and absolute humidity; AH, rainfall; RF, solar radiation; SLR, and wind speed; WS with group of infectious diseases (gastrointestinal tract infection; GIT, upper; URTI and lower respiratory tract infection; LRTI, skin disease and vector-borne disease; VBD), adjusting for potential confounders and effect modifiers (socioeconomic status; SES and child anthropometry). RESULTS:The result shows with each unit (1°C) increase in Tmax GIT and VBD increased by 4.18% and 6.09% respectively, and each unit (1°C) decline in Tmax increased URTI and Skin diseases by 3.35% and 3.6% respectively. RH (2.73%) and SLR (9.93%) shows association (positive) only with URTI. Increase in VBD (6.09%) and Skin disease (10.13%) was observed with each unit (1kg/m3) increase in AH and increase in LRTI (3.02%) with each unit decrease. WS shows association with most of the disease categories and RF showing little effect but significant. SES and anthropometric parameters shows to modify the association between climate and diseases as good proportion of children fell in stunting, wasting, and underweight categories. CONCLUSIONS:Study findings advocate prioritization of effective measures by government and policymakers to curb child morbidity burden as the effect of climate could be more devastating under climate change scenarios in proportion of children that are already malnourished. KEYWORDS: Infectious diseases,Climate,Environmental epidemiology,Socio-economic factors,Children's environmental health