The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils

Abstract

The likely impact of climate change on the moisture regime of Scottish soils and consequently on agriculture and land use has been addressed using a novel Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach. Current estimates of changes in summer precipitation by the year 2030 are 0% with an associated uncertainty of ±11%. This study considers the worst case scenario of a decrease in rainfall by 11% which will lead to some low rainfall areas experiencing an increased drought risk, particularly on lighter soils. Wet areas with heavy soils could benefit from an increase in the accessibility period for machinery. As the major agricultural land in Scotland is located on the relatively dry east coast where localised problems due to drought are not uncommon even under the present climate, the detrimental effects of a decrease in rainfall for the whole of Scotland are therefore likely to outweigh the benefits. Approximately 8% of Scotland has been identified in this study as soil/climate combinations which will be susceptible to drought should summer rainfall decrease by 11% and summer temperature increase by 1·4° C.