The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study

Abstract

This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for ‘best guess’ seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at. The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the ‘best guess’ changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios. For the River Rhine ‘best guess’ changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. ‘Best guess’ scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in ‘worst case scenarios’ used by the Dutch water management authorities.