Abstract
Conservation agriculture (CA) is being promoted as a set of management practices that can sustain crop production while providing positive environmental benefits. However, its impact on crop productivity is hotly debated, and how this productivity will be affected by climate change remains uncertain. Here we compare the productivity of CA systems and their variants on the basis of no tillage versus conventional tillage systems for eight major crop species under current and future climate conditions using a probabilistic machine-learning approach at the global scale. We reveal large differences in the probability of yield gains with CA across crop types, agricultural management practices, climate zones and geographical regions. For most crops, CA performed better in continental, dry and temperate regions than in tropical ones. Under future climate conditions, the performance of CA is expected to mostly increase for maize over its tropical areas, improving the competitiveness of CA for this staple crop. The authors assess the productivity of conservation agriculture systems for eight major crops under current and future climate using a global-scale probabilistic machine-learning approach, revealing substantial differences in yield gain probabilities across crop type, management practice, climate zone and geography.
Highlights
CIRED, Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement, 45bis Avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94130 Nogent-sur-Marne, France
Compared to previous studies on the productivity of CA5–7,18, this is the first time that the probabilities of yield gain with Conservation agriculture (CA) systems have been mapped in current and future climate scenarios
Some of the most promising geographical regions in our analysis had been identified in previous studies[18], but we were able to report information on yield gains as probabilities instead of the simple categories of yield increase or decrease
Summary
CIRED, Centre international de recherche sur l’environnement et le développement, 45bis Avenue de la Belle Gabrielle, 94130 Nogent-sur-Marne, France. We compared the productivity of CA vs conventional tillage (CT) systems under current and future climate conditions using a probabilistic machinelearning approach at the global scale. The relative productive performance of CA is expected to increase for maize in almost all cropping areas within the tropical band, improving the competitiveness of CA for this major crop. We compared the crop yields of CA and CT systems under current and future climate conditions based on a new, global database of paired yield observations of NT (including CA and NT without crop rotation and/or residue retention) vs CT. As an indicator of water availability for crops, the precipitation balance (PB) was defined as (P – E) over the growing season[5]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
