The impact of climate change on spatially varying groundwater recharge in the grand river watershed (Ontario)

Abstract

Understanding the process of groundwater recharge is fundamental to the management of groundwater resources. Quantifying the future evolution of recharge over time requires not only the reliable forecasting of changes in key climatic variables, but also modelling their impact on the spatially varying recharge process. This paper presents a physically based methodology that can be used to characterize both the temporal and spatial effect of climate change on groundwater recharge. The method, based on the hydrologic model HELP3, can be used to estimate potential groundwater recharge at the regional scale with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, the method is used to simulate the past conditions, with 40 years of actual weather data, and future changes in the hydrologic cycle of the Grand River watershed. The impact of climate change is modelled by perturbing the model input parameters using predicted changes in the regions climate. The results of the study indicate that the overall rate of groundwater recharge is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. The higher intensity and frequency of precipitation will also contribute significantly to surface runoff, while global warming may result in increased evapotranspiration rates. Warmer winter temperatures will reduce the extent of ground frost and shift the spring melt from spring toward winter, allowing more water to infiltrate into the ground. While many previous climate change impact studies have focused on the temporal changes in groundwater recharge, our results suggest that the impacts can also have high spatial variability.